Failure analysis
Early losses: diagnose the first blocker, not the final mistake
Classify an early failure as a rule mismatch, resource misuse, or hidden requirement before retrying.
A constructed diagnostic model for reader-owned practice sessions. It does not determine a game’s intended solution or certify any product’s difficulty.
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The final mistake often hides the first one
A loss may become visible when a path closes or a tray fills, but the cause can be much earlier: a rule was read differently, a resource was spent for no named purpose, or the board required a fact that was never shown.
Diagnosing the first blocker prevents the common loop of fixing the last move forever while leaving the original misunderstanding intact.
Use three checks in order
First ask whether any legal move exists under the rule you believe. If not, treat it as a rule mismatch. Second, ask whether the target was reachable but a resource ran out; treat that as resource misuse. Third, if you explored every visible legal move and all branches failed, look for a hidden requirement.
The order matters. Hidden-requirement explanations are dramatic, but they should not bypass the simpler checks of rules and resources.
| Check | If false | Meaning | Next action |
|---|---|---|---|
| A legal move exists now | No | Rule mismatch | Re-read the legal move and test one reversible action. |
| Resources remain | No | Resource misuse | Identify the first unnamed expenditure. |
| All visible branches fail | Yes | Possible hidden requirement | Look for a goal, counter, or constraint not yet modeled. |
One classifier can change the next retry
If no legal move exists at the start, a strategy tip cannot help; the reader’s legal-move model is wrong. If moves exist but resources are gone, the opening was too generous with an unnamed tool. If all visible branches fail only after full exploration, a hidden requirement is likely.
This classification does not prove the game’s design. It tells the reader which evidence to collect next.
Start: legal move? no → rule mismatch Retry: test the definition of a legal move before choosing a route.
Keep a three-line loss log
Line one states the believed rule. Line two states the first moment of doubt. Line three states the classifier result. Three lines are enough to reveal whether the same category repeats.
After three losses, compare the logs. One repeated category points to a focused repair. Three different categories suggest that the board’s representation, not a single tactic, is the main obstacle.
Believed rule: pour onto same color or empty only. First doubt: pour onto a half-filled mixed tube. Classification: rule mismatch.
Match the repair to the category
A rule mismatch improves with a reversible test and a written win condition. Resource misuse improves with a named spending rule. A hidden requirement improves with careful observation, a wider search, or accepting that the model is incomplete.
If frustration is high, pause before collecting more evidence. Diagnosis requires a calm comparison between what you assumed and what the board actually allowed.
